The International Energy Agency, IEA, has announced that the US will overtake Saudi Arabia in terms of annual oil production as early as 2017. Older reports had seen Saudi Arabia up on top until at least 2035. According to the report, US daily output will amount to 11.1 million barrels, while Saudi Arabia will only achieve 10.6 million barrels. On the same terms, the US will surpass Russia by 2015. By 2035, when the report estimates the US production to fall and the Saudi production to rise again, 90% of Middle Eastern energy exports will go to Asia. read article read report
It is one thing if a natural disaster destroys a country’s growth prospects, it is another if it just happens. Japan’s Q3 GDP fell more than expected, slumping 3.5% instead of the expected 3.4% on an annualized basis. Back in recession, this is the worst performance of Japanese GDP since the 2011 earthquake and mostly attributed to poor export performance and declining consumer spending. The former, of course, is related to the crisis between Japan and China. China’s exports, on the other hand, rose in October, adding to the positive trade balance. This could be Japan’s fifth recession over the past 15 years. read article
In post-election America, where corporate profits have hit lowest levels since 2009, and the politicized fiscal cliff issue is looming [and wasn't there going to be a food crisis coming as well?], banks have been victorious. After a lot of back and forth, Wall Street’s lobbyists in Washington succeeded in postponing the implementation date of Basel III - indefinitely. The regulation that prescribes higher capital requirements was meant to come into action on January 1, 2013, but now the timeframe was deemed inappropriate. Jamie Dimon is dancing. To him, Basel III was “un-American” to begin with. In Germany, Basel III will indeed come into effect on New Year’s Day. The German Finance Ministry expects the US to phase Basel III into law over the course of 2013.
Greece beat budget targets for the first ten months of 2012! Now, that’s quite some news. The State Budget deficit totalled €12.3bn, instead of €13.6bn as targeted. Except.. well… this doesn’t include money spent (or lost) by government-owned enterprises. The full report the troika demands prior to the payment of the next bailout tranche, is also still in the making, while the €5bn debt repayment due date comes closer. Officials in Brussels have already announced that we shouldn’t hold our breath for a solution in today’s Eurogroup meeting. In sum:
…the endless Greek “will it be bailed out, won’t it” saga, which today enters yet another irrelevant phase with the latest Eurogroup summit where nothing is expected to be resolved (everyone is still waiting for the Troika report). The final outcome will likely be the much delayed funding of the €31.5bn tranche, but only after Germany pretends to kick and scream loudly and obstinantely, only to comply behind the scenes. After all remember: the Greek “bailout” is really just a bailout of Deutsche Bank.
I guess it is fair to say that some have finally and ultimately become disenchanted with the Greek crisis and will only use it to channel frustration over the rest of the ailing world economy. Fair enough, I’ve been doing that for months.
So long.
